Despite the volatility that has affected the overall economy, the aviation industry has weathered the storms. Indeed, sector financing is set to grow, though there could be regional differences according to Justin Benson, Adrian Beasley, Simon Collins, Christian Hansen, Michael Smith and Richard Smith, partners of global law firm White & Case
Despite many of the global economy's warning signals flashing red, the prospects for the aviation finance sector appear undimmed. The aviation industry as a whole has demonstrated remarkable levels of resilience amid the uncertainty and volatility of recent years, with continued passenger growth offsetting a moderate decline in air cargo traffic during 2019. Financing has grown in lockstep with the industry and is expected to continue to do so. For example, Boeing predicts the value of global aviation finance will rise to US$181 billion by 2023, up from US$126 billion in 2018.
Our new survey of the aviation finance market suggests these types of forecasts may be realistic. The airlines and capital providers whose views it summarizes expect investment in aviation to continue growing, with a corresponding increase in financing activity. Although challenges certainly may lie ahead, including the deteriorating outlook for the global economy, optimism still prevails in this market. In particular, the increasing diversity of funding sources may provide some protection against setbacks in any one area.
That said, this report also identifies significant differences in sentiment by geography. In broad terms, respondents based in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region are considerably more likely to have positive views of the outlook for 2020, while those based in North America and—in particular—Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are less upbeat.
Clearly, while this is a global industry, with capital flowing freely across borders, there is no escaping the regional economic context. As European and North American economies seemingly move toward a period of slower growth—or outright recession if the most pessimistic predictions are confirmed—Asian markets may offer some respite, despite also being expected to slow.
This report focuses on both the global picture and these geographical nuances. We consider the outlook for investments in the aviation sector, and we survey the funding landscape that will support these investments. Our report also focuses on liquidity, airline consolidation and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, while highlighting opportunities and risks facing this industry in 2020 and beyond.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, White & Case, in partnership with Mergermarket, surveyed 100 senior-level executives at entities that have either financed or invested in the aviation industry in the past three years. The aim of the survey was to analyze sentiment regarding aviation finance. Organizations surveyed included airlines, operating lessors, banks, export credit agencies, private equity and other alternative capital providers. Job titles included CEO, CFO, director level and heads of investment.
Our exclusive survey of senior executives who have financed the aviation industry in the past three years reveals that the overall investment outlook for the sector is bright, with one region in particular set for larger growth than its global equivalents
The multiplicity of financing sources such as asset-backed security, insurance and leasing companies has been crucial for the sector. In this section, we reveal the origins and sources of expected funding in 2020
Despite the sector's current strong performance, many survey respondents believe the industry needs even more capital and liquidity. In addition, most expect restructurings and insolvencies to increase in 2020
Economic volatility, political unrest and fierce competition are all seen as major challenges to the sector in the coming 12 to 18 months. Meanwhile, respondents are preparing for rising oil prices and growing industry consolidation
We explore key takeaways from our exclusive survey and what they could mean for the aviation industry and aviation finance
Economic volatility, political unrest and fierce competition are all seen as major challenges to the sector in the coming 12 to 18 months. Meanwhile, respondents are preparing for rising oil prices and growing industry consolidation
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61%
of respondents regard recession and/or economic volatility as among the greatest threats to their profitability over the next 12 to 18 months
What does the future hold for the aviation sector? Many in the industry are conscious of an elevated level of risk. More than half (61%) regard recession and/or economic volatility as among the greatest threats to their profitability over the next 12 to 18 months, with significant numbers concerned about regulatory issues and compliance, as well as political instability.
Competition is also an industry concern. "The rate at which the competition has increased both domestically and at an international level is alarming," says the Chief Financial Officer of a Latin American airline.
40%
of respondents expect the rate of M&A-driven airline and leasing company consolidation to be significant during 2020
One possible response to these threats will be to seek greater scale, particularly in the most fragmented areas of the industry where smaller players may welcome the protection of a larger parent company. Indeed, M&A activity in the sector was strong during 2019, and many expect consolidation to continue in the year ahead. In fact, 40% of respondents expect merger activity to be significant during 2020, while a further 54% anticipate slight or moderate consolidation.
"More M&A is likely," predicts the Managing Director of an APAC-based bank. "Airlines are going to have to do more strategic deals to cope with the situation they face."
In every part of the world, respondents report significant frustration about shortcomings in local infrastructure.
Elsewhere, the outlook for oil prices appears unchallenged amid expectations of depressed global economic growth, although tensions or outright conflict in the Middle East could undermine that view. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts an average price of US$60.51 a barrel for Brent Crude during 2020, which would represent a moderate fall compared to US$63.93 in 2019.
Nevertheless, 70% of respondents say they have already begun preparing for a potential increase in oil prices over the year ahead, while a further 27% have plans to do so. In an unpredictable political and economic environment, where many in this sector are already feeling the pressure of more difficult trading conditions, there is a strong desire to be prepared in case fuel prices rise.
Despite the difficulties of the macro environment and industry-specific concerns, many in the aviation sector continue to look forward to growth. The greatest opportunities are now likely to be found in developing economies rather than the more mature markets of the West.
If prices do start to increase, hedging strategies such as seeking to cap fuel costs through derivatives contracts will be an important focus for many in the industry. "We have begun preparing for the potential increase in oil prices during 2020," says the Head of Strategy at a North American airline. "We would like to be prepared with appropriate plans and resources. Ensuring consistent returns while executing our growth plans will be our main objective."
There are other challenges ahead, too.
In every part of the world, respondents report significant frustration about shortcomings in local infrastructure. In EMEA, it has become increasingly difficult to secure policymakers' consent for new airport construction or airport expansion, with the environmental concerns likely to make such developments even more challenging. For example, plans to expand Heathrow Airport in the UK remain mired in political controversy. In APAC, meanwhile, where new airport building has proceeded in fast-growing economies such as China and India, there is still concern that regional networks of secondary airports are insufficient. Nor is it just the physical infrastructure that matters. In regions experiencing rapid growth, there is often also a shortage of pilots and other airline staff.
It would be shortsighted to overlook the potential impacts of climate change, particularly over the longer term, as regulators and policymakers focus on the industry as a significant carbon emitter.
Another issue for some respondents has been delivery delays or suspended operations of certain aircraft. In this research, respondents in EMEA are most likely to have suffered significant short-term negative impacts due to such delays or expect to do so. Respondents in all regions report at least slight to moderate short-term negative impacts, which can be distracting. "Delivery delays are to be expected when dealing with aircraft of this size," says the Chief Marketing and Strategy Officer of a North American operating lessor. "But we want to be able to focus our attention on new opportunities rather than sorting out these challenges."
Finally, it would be shortsighted to overlook the potential impacts of climate change, particularly over the longer term, as regulators and policymakers focus on the airline industry as a significant carbon emitter. Right now, respondents in Latin America are among the most concerned about what this might mean for the sector. This topic is especially close to the political front burner for Latin America, given the vulnerability of the Amazon region.
Nevertheless, despite the difficulties of the macro environment and industry-specific concerns, such as infrastructure and aircraft delays, many in the aviation sector continue to look forward to growth. The greatest opportunities are now likely to be found in developing economies rather than the more mature markets of the West.
Asked to pick the two regions where they expect the fastest growth in 2020, 94% of respondents picked Asia, while 47% chose Africa. "There has been a significant rise in the demand patterns for airlines in these regions," says the Head of Strategy at an APAC-based operating lessor. "Airlines are having to increase the number of aircraft and cover newer destinations to support these changing demands. This has increased the potential for lessors and financing institutions as well."
By contrast, respondents expect the two slowest-growing regions to be Europe (cited by 84% of respondents) and the Middle East (45%). Economic difficulties in the former and excess capacity concerns in the latter appear to worry the sector.
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© 2020 White & Case LLP
What do you consider to be the greatest threats to the profitability of your business over the next 12 – 18 months? (select top three) (PDF)
How do you expect the rate of M&A-driven airline and leasing company consolidation to change during 2020? (PDF)
Have you already begun preparing for a potential increase in oil prices during 2020? (PDF)
How likely is it that your response to a potential increase in oil prices during 2020 would include capped fuel costs in forward contracts or other risk-adverse hedging strategies? (PDF)
Is there a need for significant infrastructure improvements, such as new airports, in the jurisdiction in which your organization is headquartered? (PDF)
Has your organization suffered any recent short-term (weeks or months-long) negative impact due to delivery delays or suspended operations of certain aircraft? (PDF)
Do you expect your organization to suffer any negative impact in the long-term (over the coming year or longer) due to delivery delays or suspended operations of certain aircraft? (PDF)
Which of the following regions do you think are likely to see the fastest growth and expansion in the aviation sector in 2020?(select up to two) (PDF)
Which of the following regions seem in danger of slowing growth or recession in the aviation sector in 2020? (select up to two) (PDF)
